Comments on: Alive > Dead http://www.madetostick.com/blog/2007/03/29/alive-dead/ Made to Stick Blog by Dan and Chip Heath Fri, 21 Nov 2008 00:21:41 +0000 http://wordpress.org/?v=2.0.5 by: Anna1 http://www.madetostick.com/blog/2007/03/29/alive-dead/#comment-13381 Mon, 04 Aug 2008 15:48:44 +0000 http://www.madetostick.com/blog/2007/03/29/alive-dead/#comment-13381 Good job. :) Interesting indeed. Good job. :) Interesting indeed.

]]> by: Etiketer http://www.madetostick.com/blog/2007/03/29/alive-dead/#comment-13371 Mon, 04 Aug 2008 10:15:03 +0000 http://www.madetostick.com/blog/2007/03/29/alive-dead/#comment-13371 Thanks! Really interesting. I wish i could spend my time on writing articles...just have no time for it. Thanks! Really interesting. I wish i could spend my time on writing articles…just have no time for it.

]]> by: Bryan Stallard http://www.madetostick.com/blog/2007/03/29/alive-dead/#comment-623 Mon, 14 May 2007 03:55:35 +0000 http://www.madetostick.com/blog/2007/03/29/alive-dead/#comment-623 Here's some real-world math to complement your post. From time to time we hear of so-and-so being a "...direct descendant of..." {pick any name from antiquity}. Say, Attila the Hun, King Solomon, or whoever. Holy Grail stories seem to have lots of these claims included - direct descendants of Jesus and Mary Magdalene, embedded in French royal lines etc.. For fun, using Carl Haub's cited estimates of total population of 500M by 1650 A.D. as a target, what might the odds be for such a claim to be valid? Well, taking an average parental age of 25 (reasonable) that means 4 generations per century, or about 32 generations in 800 years, so 2 parents, 4 grandparents expands dramatically, creating 2^32 ~= 4B slots on each of our ancestral trees by around 1200 A.D. Since we have less than 500M candidates to occupy the 4B slots, once we go back more than 700 years, the really special thing is not to be "descended from Attila" at all, but to NOT be. Beyond that point, every possible candidate gets to occupy multiple slots on the tree, via multiple pathways. Given historical occurrences of invasions, migrations, pillage and rape, once enough time has passed, and that's about a millenium or less, everyone who could be an ancestor is an ancestor, except in vanishingly small-likelihood cases of total abstinence, exclusively gay individuals, or lineage extinction within a few generations from massacres involving total ethnic cleansing (taking the women as slaves after a victory actually increases the mixing process rate). So, if you want to have a worthy ancestral role model to live up to, pick your favorite historical character - you probably are his/her descendant. Just as long as you don't mind sharing. Because our ancestors really are part of our shared heritage. And if French and Scottish parties claim descent from Mary Magdalene, they're probably right. Here’s some real-world math to complement your post. From time to time we hear of so-and-so being a “…direct descendant of…” {pick any name from antiquity}. Say, Attila the Hun, King Solomon, or whoever. Holy Grail stories seem to have lots of these claims included - direct descendants of Jesus and Mary Magdalene, embedded in French royal lines etc..

For fun, using Carl Haub’s cited estimates of total population of 500M by 1650 A.D. as a target, what might the odds be for such a claim to be valid?

Well, taking an average parental age of 25 (reasonable) that means 4 generations per century, or about 32 generations in 800 years, so 2 parents, 4 grandparents expands dramatically, creating 2^32 ~= 4B slots on each of our ancestral trees by around 1200 A.D. Since we have less than 500M candidates to occupy the 4B slots, once we go back more than 700 years, the really special thing is not to be “descended from Attila” at all, but to NOT be. Beyond that point, every possible candidate gets to occupy multiple slots on the tree, via multiple pathways.

Given historical occurrences of invasions, migrations, pillage and rape, once enough time has passed, and that’s about a millenium or less, everyone who could be an ancestor is an ancestor, except in vanishingly small-likelihood cases of total abstinence, exclusively gay individuals, or lineage extinction within a few generations from massacres involving total ethnic cleansing (taking the women as slaves after a victory actually increases the mixing process rate).

So, if you want to have a worthy ancestral role model to live up to, pick your favorite historical character - you probably are his/her descendant. Just as long as you don’t mind sharing. Because our ancestors really are part of our shared heritage.

And if French and Scottish parties claim descent from Mary Magdalene, they’re probably right.

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